Delta Arc report · Market intelligence
A market price moved. What should your business reconsider?
The Probability Gap: How prediction markets become useful business intelligence.
Get the report and worksheetKey findings
- The probability gap is the distance between a quoted contract and a usable operating decision.
- Closing it takes three translations: contract to real-world event, market observation to uncertainty, and assessment to a decision with an owner.
- Six gates decide whether a market belongs on a watchlist. Failing a required gate means hold or exclude, not compensate elsewhere.
- The capability can be tested before any trading or automated action is considered.
What is inside
- A six-gate contract-to-decision test
- A minimum market observation record
- Worked hypothetical examples, labeled synthetic
- A forecasting evaluation protocol that avoids look-ahead bias
- A 2027 business watchlist and a six-week pilot
- A companion watchlist worksheet
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Sources
- CFTC, Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts
- Kalshi Help Center, The Orderbook, March 10, 2026
- CFTC, Staff Issues Prediction Markets Advisory, March 12, 2026
- CFTC Staff Letter 26-27, September 22, 2026
Limits
Research and business decision support, not trading advice. It contains no live market recommendations, trading signals or promises of forecasting performance. No market dataset was collected or backtested for this publication, and all numeric examples are synthetic. No affiliation with or endorsement by the cited organizations is implied.