The clearest guide on the internet to prediction markets — Kalshi, Polymarket, and how to read the odds. Free education; the live board is the product.
An election market price is a probability, not a prediction. Here is how to read it, and where new readers go wrong.
When a market's odds move, someone changed their mind with money on the line. Here is how to read what that move is actually saying.
A contract that pays a dollar if something happens will trade at whatever the crowd thinks the odds are, and that price is the whole game.
One is a regulated US exchange, the other a crypto-native global venue. The difference shapes who can trade, what settles, and how prices behave.
A prediction market looks like a poll, trades like a bet, and behaves like a signal. Only one of those is what it actually is.
A 500 million dollar hedging book and a licensed exchange show prediction markets turning into financial plumbing, not a sideshow.
They both look like odds on a screen, but one is a marketplace and the other is a house. That changes everything.
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