NFL Market Prices vs Results: Favorites Won 12 of 13
We saved Friday's NFL contract prices and checked them against the weekend's results. Here is how the implied odds held up.
Published 2026-11-09 · Data as of 2026-11-09 · Market & data intelligence · Educational, not advice.
Delta Arc saved 108 NFL contract prices on Friday, November 6, and scored them against ESPN final scores. Favorites won 12 of 13 after trading near 71 cents. Venue gaps were worth a median 1.4 cents. It was one weekend, so the sample is small, and there are no picks here.
On Friday, November 6, at 13:55 UTC, Delta Arc saved 108 NFL contract prices. After the weekend, Delta Arc's BM Dash scored them against final scores from ESPN's NFL scoreboard, checked November 9 at 14:00 UTC. Thirteen games were final, 92 lines resolved, and two games were still to play.
This is not a pick record. It scores the market's own prices against what happened.
What a Friday price actually is
A price on a prediction market is not a forecast someone published. It is what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept. Say the buyer pays 64 cents for a contract that pays $1 if New England wins. The seller on the other side collects the 64 cents and owes the dollar if New England does win. The exchange matches the two of them. That is the key difference from a sportsbook, where the house sets the line and takes your bet directly.
So a Friday price is a snapshot of disagreement, taken days before kickoff. A 64-cent price means that, at that moment, the market put roughly a 64 percent chance on the outcome. Checking those snapshots against results is called calibration. The question is simple: do outcomes priced at 70 cents happen about 70 percent of the time?
The scorecard
Favorites
Per Delta Arc's calculation, Friday's moneyline favorites won 12 of 13 games, or 92 percent. The market had priced them at 71 cents on average, about a 71 percent implied chance. This weekend, favorites did better than their price.
Here is another way to see it. Suppose you bought one $1-payout contract on every favorite, each at the cheapest venue. It would have cost $9.05 and paid back $12.00. That is a scorecard of the market, not a strategy. One weekend when favorites run hot says little about the next.
Same outcome, different prices
Each venue runs its own order book, so the same outcome can trade at slightly different prices in different places at the same moment. Delta Arc looked at the 46 outcomes that happened. Buying at the cheapest venue instead of the most expensive would have kept a median 1.4 cents more of every $1 payout.
That gap sounds small, but on a contract that pays a dollar it is real. Fees, spreads and venue gaps are the quiet part of these markets, and they add up over every trade. Delta Arc's Prediction Markets product is built for this comparison. It puts Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side, so you can see venue differences instead of guessing at them.
How much prices moved before kickoff
Delta Arc took a second snapshot on Sunday, November 8, at 16:26 UTC. Across 62 Kalshi lines quoted both times, the median line moved 1.0 cents from Friday.
The largest move Delta Arc logged was the Over 38.5 total in New York Giants at Philadelphia. It went from 53 cents on Friday to 50 cents on Sunday, and the game did not go over.
Two things stand out. First, prices were stable: the typical line moved about a cent in two days. Second, the biggest drift pointed toward the eventual result. That is one line, not a pattern. Still, it shows how prices keep shifting as buyers and sellers react to new information right up until the outcome is known.
What this does and does not tell you
A recap like this is a mirror, not a map. It shows how one slate of market prices compared with results. It does not say which prices will be right next week, and it does not recommend a trade.
What it does show is how these prices work. They are agreements between counterparties, not pronouncements. They sit near 50 cents when games look close, they drift as news arrives, and they differ by venue. We will keep scoring them, and the sample will start to say more than one weekend can.
Sources: Delta Arc BM Dash (Delta Arc's calculations on Friday venue prices); ESPN NFL scoreboard (final scores).
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