A Cohort Rate Is Not a Conversion Factor
Thirteen percent of past queue requests reached operation. That does not mean 13 percent of today's queue will.
Berkeley Lab reports that only 13 percent of the capacity that requested interconnection from 2000 to 2020 had reached commercial operation. Another 75 percent was withdrawn and 10 percent remained active.
It is tempting to multiply today's active queue by 13 percent and call the result a forecast. That turns a historical cohort outcome into a conversion factor, across regions, technologies and rules that have since changed.
A better record keeps the cohort rate as context, and asks what stage and evidence sit behind each megawatt: study phase, agreement status, dates and the other things a project still needs.
Limit. This note is not a forecast, a reliability finding or investment advice.
Sources
The full record
More evidence
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A Cohort Rate Is Not a Conversion Factor
Thirteen percent of past queue requests reached operation. That does not mean 13 percent of today's queue will.
Where the evidence lives
14 primary sources, with what each can and cannot establish.
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How to cite this page. Delta Arc, LLC. “A Cohort Rate Is Not a Conversion Factor.” DA-DN-003, version 1, as of 2026-11-02. https://thedeltaarc.com/research/decision-notes/a-cohort-rate-is-not-a-conversion-factor/